Weather forecasts for 2012 indicate that there will be excessive rain and with that, cities lying on the coastal belts of the country such as Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt are likely to experience flooding

O ku ewu, Niyi. Take heart. I took

Another look at Ahmadu Bello Way

Yesterday, wondering how far we are

From our own Katrina.

The above lines were culled from a letter written by Wole Soyinka, a professor of Literature, to Niyi Osundare, a professor of English, following the Katrina flood disaster of 2005 that Osundare was a victim of. The Katrina floods submerged parts of New Orleans, Louisiana, a coastal town in the United States, where Osundare lived at the time and ended up destroying all his valued books and property, thereby rendering him and his family homeless.

That incident, which is adjudged to be the deadliest, most destructive and costliest natural disaster in the history of the United States horrified people across the world and attracted worldwide sympathy for the  victims. Since then, there have been similar flood and tsunami incidents that were recorded in different parts of the world such as Asia, Europe, Central, South and North America, including the US itself. Some of these natural disasters have been blamed on climate change.

Given the colossal death and destruction often linked to climate change, the phenomenon has understandably caused a lot of anxiety among people the world over. Nigeria, Africa’s most populated nation, may not have witnessed anything close to a tsunami, but there are concerns by some people about the preparedness or capacity of the federal and state governments to tackle  climate change.

Take Lagos for example. A coastal city, Lagos is Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, and one of its beaches,  called “Bar Beach,” –which is probably  the most popular of the  beaches that dot its landscape had, in recent years, shown signs of what to expect should nature choose to unleash its fury. The Ahmadu Bello Way that Soyinka talked about had been frequently flooded as a result of the beach overflowing its banks. Such periodic surge have been a cause of worry to not just people living or working around the Bar Beach area,  but other residents of the state, as no one knows how far the threat could go. Perhaps, these are signs that Lagos or other parts of Nigeria are not immune from changes in climatic conditions.

Climate change is real indeed and the signs, many experts have argued, are not difficult to notice. Even the rainstorm that wreaked havoc in some parts of Lagos on February 13, leading to the death of at least 10 people and the destruction of property worth hundreds of thousands of Naira, is evidence that things are no longer the way they used to be. Ebenezer Meshida, a lecturer in the department of Geo Sciences of the University of Lagos, said that in all the years he has lived in Lagos, he had never experienced such rainstorm. “I was surprised because we hear these things theoretically. This is the first time I would actually see it in nature. I had never experienced such, not with that type of wind. You know that the meteorologists have been saying that things have changed.”

For nearly one year now, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMET, has been drumming it into the ears of Nigerians that the country was likely to witness increased rainfall along the way. For some Lagos residents, the proof of that warning was the heavy downpour witnessed across the state on July 11, last year. No less than 15 persons died, as a result of the torrential rain. The rain, which began in the morning hours, lasted all day and by the time the count of the cost of the disaster began, many were left wondering what a hell of a rain it had been.

Apart from the loss of lives, economic activities were partially paralysed.

Two months after, it was the turn of residents of Ibadan to feel the impact of devastating flood. The flood was caused by the rainfall that lasted several hours. Although virtually every area of Ibadan was affected, communities in Oluyole, Iddo, Akinyele, Lagelu, Ibadan South West, Egbeda North West and North East local government areas and Agbowo were worse hit. In Agbowo, University of Ibadan area of the town, no fewer than 15 people, mostly children, lost their lives to the downpour. In other parts of Ile Eja and Carpenter, images of Tsunami devastated homelands in far away continents came to mind as corpses of children and adults were seen floating on water, with homelands submerged. It was a gory sight, one that left families of victims wailing and gnashing their teeth in regret.

That was not the last of the list of disasters caused by rainfall. In early September 2010, many residents of Sokoto and Kebbi states also attracted nationwide attention over the pain they were subjected to as a result of the floods that had ravaged the two sister states. The floods were blamed on the “unprecedented rainfall” in the states which led to parts of Goronyo Dam in Sokoto State collapsing. As a result, many homes were submerged and destroyed by water, leading to the death and displacement of many  people.

These incidents, even with the high casualty figures, might seem few and far between. But they stand as reminders that nature does overshoot its bounds. And NIMET has not failed to draw attention to this. It often reminds Nigerians of expected changes in weather or climatic conditions, which it says could lead to increased rainfall.

The latest of such advice came at an event it organised last week. NIMET again predicted the possibility of increased rainfall this year and said that towns like Lagos, Ibadan, Calabar, Port Harcourt and other cities in the southern parts of the country might experience occasional floods, with thunderstorms and destructive winds accompanying the early rains.

Although the predicted high rainfall suggests the likelihood of sufficient fish production in the coastal parts of the country, NIMET said the rainstorms and gusty winds that may follow, could aggravate the problem of coastal flooding and erosion.

The prediction, according to the release by the agency, may not be all good news for sectors like transport, health and disaster management. This is in view of the expected challenges. The rainfall pattern and associated severe rainstorms and strong winds expected to occur in isolated areas may cause poor visibility and make the roads slippery. Relevant government agencies like the Federal Road Safety Corp, FRSC, and others, therefore, need to devise necessary control measures to curtail accidents. More so, the Northern part of the country may experience flash flooding that could destroy crops and physical structures. “Therefore, the emergency management services providers are advised to take advantage of these advisories to strengthen their preparedness,” said NIMET.

On health, though there could be  incidences of increased air-borne diseases due to harmattan dust early in the year, it is predicted that a below normal temperature during the season might prevent heat waves. This may lead to a reduction in cases of meningitis but could end up making malaria parasites more active. The health sector was, for this reason, advised to strengthen its contingency plans to curb any incidence.

But, giving a general forecast of its 2012 Seasonal Rainfall Predictions, SRP, and 2011 weather review presentation, NIMET predicted a near moderate climate for the country this year, with a boost in agriculture, if certain technical precautions are taken, as a means to adapt to the anticipated conditions.

  According to NIMET, Nigerians should expect normal rainfall between the extreme  south and  extreme north. The amount of rainfall would vary from 300mm to 1100mm in the North and 1200mm in the South. In the South, it will increase from 1200-2700mm and lead to high surface run-off and flash flooding. The normal rainfall is expected to cover a large part of the country and it is likely to create sufficient water in lakes, dams and rivers, for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation.

The forecast shows that the cities likely to witness high rainfall are those in the coastal areas.

That does not come as a surprise to Meshida. “Lagos is in what is technically known as wetland environment where water level is very near to the surface and occasionally where flood can agitate settlements. So, if, for instance, we assume that there’s unprecedented magnitude of rainfall, together with the present ongoing melting of snow from the north and south poles, sea level can rise and when sea level rises, it submerges wetland areas, coastal areas to begin with, and what we can be talking about is, how severe can the sea level be to be able to submerge Lagos?”

Efforts to find out the current sea levels of Nigeria’s coastal cities like Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt, were unsuccessful as a source in the Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research, NIOMR, in Victoria Island, Lagos, told Newswatch that the rates of sea level rise along Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt have not been accurately quantified due to lack of long term data. However, Larry Awosika, a professor and director of NIOMR, told Newswatch that cities like Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt, by virtue of their location within the Nigerian low lying coastal zone are easily susceptible to coastal erosion and flooding, especially during high tides and sea level rise.  “Recent tidal measurements in Lagos spanning from 1990 to the present have shown a rise in sea level,” he said, adding that “analysis of the tidal data collected by the NGWLMS shows that the tide off Lagos experience diurnal tides with two inequalities.” He further explained that spring tidal range average for the Victoria beach is about 1.5 m, while neap tide average range is approximately 1m. “The average mean sea level obtained from tide gauge records (Lagos) spanning 1960 to 1970 was found to be 0.462m above the zero of the tide gauge. Records from NIOMR tide gauge show a gradual increase in mean sea levels between 1990 and present.”

Awosika said that countries like Japan that have experienced tsunamis have a much more adequate and reliable data and information on sea level variations than Nigeria.   “Though the rates of sea level rise and tidal range along the Nigeria coastal areas may be small compared to other countries, the impacts of small increases in sea levels on the Nigerian coast and coastal cities could be devastating because of the low lying nature of our coastal areas,” he said, adding that the adverse consequences or impact of a rise in sea level is captured in a Vulnerability Assessment case study undertaken by the Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research. This study “employed the use of aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis technique with ground truth data to assess the impact of sea level rise on the Nigerian Coast.” The study further reveals that “the Lagos and Lekki barrier Lagoon systems habouring large real estate could lose about well over 584 and 602 square kilometres of land from erosion and inundation” and that  “such adverse impact will affect the residential, commercial and tourist facilities on the Victoria Island, Ikoyi and Lagos Islands valued at well over $12 billion.”

Victoria Island, Ikoyi and Lagos Island are literally encircled by water and such revelation of possible loss of landed property is not likely to impress those who live around the sea areas or crave to have properties around there.

Last year, the Lagos State government came up with a plan to reclaim part of the Atlantic Ocean and build a city there. About nine million square metres of land would be reclaimed 2.4 kilometres south of Ahmadu Bello Way, Victoria Island, Lagos, into the Atlantic Ocean. The planned city, by the time it is completed, would be one and a half times the size of current Victoria Island. When completed, the new island would be called Eko Atlantic City. It is estimated to accommodate 250,000 residents and 150,000 commuters.

Newswatch learnt that many wealthy individuals and corporate bodies have bought plots of land ahead of completion schedule of 2016. The ambitious project is being undertaken by South Energyx Nigeria Limited, SENL, a subsidiary of the Chaghoury Group.

It seems all very fascinating. But the idea of living close to ocean or sea doesn’t appear a wise decision to Meshida. He calls it “a very dangerous and stupid scheme” that could leave someone regretting his actions in the long run. “In politics and human self aggrandizement, it is oh, fantastic, and a very beautiful scheme to reclaim part of a sea and build your city there. But in geology, when the forces come to play, then we will realise it’s a stupid scheme. It’s a scheme that wastes resources.”

Osundare also believes so. In a recent interview with Newswatch, Osundare said that those who choose to build their homes close to the sea, run the risk of losing  them. “I have always been concerned about nature. The way we treat nature, nature will fight back through tsunamis, through hurricanes…the sea will reclaim Victoria Island if we are not careful. The rich people who go to Ajah, Lekki and so on and keep sinking millions and millions …I don’t know how many bags of cement it will take  to build a house on the ocean. It serves for them some kind of ego trip. We should leave Ajah, Lekki and all these places alone,” he said, adding that “when you sink something into the water, the water doesn’t disappear. It moves to some other areas and  moves back. It gets to places where it should not be and it worries the people.”

Nnabugwu Oluocha, a lecturer in the department of geography of the University of Lagos, also has a word of advice.  “It’s a major problem here in Lagos. Because of the scarcity of land, you find that when government wants to build, you see them reclaiming land.  But you are driving away water from somewhere. That water  will find its way. It will relocate and when that happens, you now see people feeling the impact.” That is why, he continued, “there are so many places they will tell you, “when we started living here, we were not experiencing this.” It’s because you drove this water from somewhere and its now moving to some other place. When you reclaim a place and you say you have blocked the water, you merely drove the water away from that location to another place. It migrates.” 

Osundare also talked about the dirt that people throw into the rivers as something that disrupts natural flow of water. “All these dirt we throw into the river, they all go into the ocean and fill up certain areas where water should be and then push water to places where it shouldn’t be. Nature organises itself through equilibrium and through balance.”

In Lagos, it is not only in rivers that people dump rubbish. The gutters and canals are choked up with all kinds of used items, from cellophane bags to water cans.  That explains why even the slightest rainfall in the state, leaves many parts of the city flooded.  This has been a source of worry for many residents of the state and explains why the Lagos State government has of late, embarked on desilting many of the canals across the state.

Uluocha also noted that there are other factors that could contribute to a place getting flooded. “If there is improper channelisation in a place, if you don’t have proper drainage system, or you don’t have gutters and even where you have gutters, they are blocked, that could actually lead to flooding,” 

Newswatch attempts to speak with Tunji Bello, Lagos State commissioner for the environment, on the matter of flooding and climate change did not yield fruit despite repeated visits and phone calls made to that effect. But the Lagos State government had, in recent times, been drawing attention to the issue of flooding and climate change as it relates to the state, which it said, it remains committed to tackling.

Such comments are, however, not new as the state government had, two years ago, announced that   residents of Ajegunle, near Ikorodu, a flood prone area, which was actually submerged by flood in 2010, would be relocated. “People must join us now in making a resolve to relocate from this area. This is not a place where people should live. There are no approval for buildings in all of these places. These are unplanned and unapproved settlements,” Babatunde Raji Fashola, Lagos State governor had said, in 2010. But nothing has come out of that, as the inhabitants of the area still live there.

Nyema Weli, Rivers State commissioner for environment, in his reaction to the issue of flooding, said the state government is not oblivious of the possible effect or impact. He explained that that was why the ministry, in conjunction with the state Environmental Sanitation Authority has been tackling issues of refuse disposal in the state to ensure that the drains do not impede the free flow of water in the rainy season. The need to check flood, he said, necessitated the creation of a Special Flood Committee by the ministry. Part of the efforts, he added, has led to the desilting of drains, waterways and creeks within the metropolis.  “Between the committee and the ministry we are able to clean our natural drainages, desilt them, remove refuse, remove weeds that have grown and occupied the natural drainages, like the Ntawogba River, the Waja Creek, Chinda River and others. We were able to disilt them, drain them, which is why they flow as they are supposed to”, he told Newswatch.

Godwin Udom, a lecturer at the University of Port-Harcourt, UNIPORT, said that flooding has a link with global warming. “As long as you have global warming, you expect flooding on a regular basis too. The effect is that it will destroy the economy of the people around, buildings, farmland and all that because the water will come into the hinterland in full force. Of course, there’s possibility that everything around the coast will be destroyed.” he said.

Victor Nkom, the Managing Director of Environmental Technologies Support and Systems Limited, who is also a consultant to the Federal Ministry of Environment on Climate Change and Carbon Asset Development,  said that climate change poses a “primary environmental and development threat” in the 21st century and that explains why it “is now on the global political agenda as never before because, after years of skepticism, it is now realised that human-induced climate change could be the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity with implications for food security, natural ecosystems, freshwater supply and health.”

Reported by Tobs Agbaegbu, Dike Onwuamaeze, Godfrey Azubike, Victor Ugborgu, Ishaya Ibrahim and Sule Elaigwu