By throwing his hat into the ring in the fight for the presidential trophy, Ibrahim Babangida has opened himself up for close scrutiny. His first step is wrong, awfully wrong. His handlers probably thought it was better to kick off the campaign from Abeokuta, the home of Moshood Abiola, the man whose election Babangida mindlessly scratched off in 1993. The strategy seems to be to deal first with the booing that was likely to come from Abeokuta and get it over with as the campaign gathers momentum.

However, the 1993 election annulment is likely to be a dominant issue in Babangida’s campaign until he gives a coherent explanation. This is because by common consent, this was Nigeria’s freest election ever. Secondly, its annulment brought five years of avoidable political turmoil, stagnation and uncertainty into the polity.

Also in communication, it is safer to give the good news first to a receptive audience and thus make it easier for them to swallow the bad news.  If he wanted to take off without political volcanic ash getting in the way, two places recommend themselves: Minna or Asaba. As a citizen of Minna and one who has held sway there for decades, he was likely to get a warm embrace.

Asaba is his late wife, Maryam’s, hometown and he is likely to get adoration for giving them the honour of hosting the capital of Delta State, a decision that has created an intractable problem ever since Delta State was created. But the Asaba people would have been happy to spread their wrappers on the floor for him to walk past.

However, the starting point ought to be: why is he in the race at all after being a maximum dictator for eight years (1985-1993)? What can he accomplish with the powers of a civilian president which are just a fraction of the powers of a military dictator? Maybe Henry Kissinger was right about power being the ultimate aphrodisiac. In that case, men who taste power - and enjoy its aroma – never ever want to let off; they are in perpetual search for power and more power. Or is Babangida attempting to be the second man, apart from Olusegun Obasanjo, to have ruled both as a military leader and a civilian leader? In that case, if he wins, he would have ruled for 12 years, beating Obasanjo by one year. He would then acquire the bragging rights: “my tenure is longer than yours.”

Or is Babangida now convinced that he made some grave mistakes that he can seek to correct if correctable. He once said that he knows Nigerians very well but Nigerians proved him wrong. Unarmed Nigerians drove him out of power on that fateful August 27 date in 1993. He rode into Minna, not in triumph but in trauma, in a mournful mood, the type you witness at the burial of a young person. He practically crawled into the city with a few aides in tow with no 21-gun salute, no guard of honour, no buntings, no welcome placards and no songs of praise. The dribbling had come to a ruinous end for a man who had every opportunity to be a quintessential hero in this unhappy, heroless, land.

He had been conned by an evil triumvirate -Arthur Nzeribe, Clement Akpamgbo and Justice Bassey Ikpeme – into thinking that the show would go on indefinitely. Instead of listening to the voice of reason, he went after the press and the opposition, closing down publications and putting dissenters in jail. But the logic of dissent is that the attempt to cow dissenters earns them more disciplines and puts the issues in bolder relief.

In order to boost his marks in the experience department, Babangida says he is coming into the race because the youths have failed. First, his own experience is largely in the politics of military dictatorship where decrees can be churned out by one person overnight and backdated and the constitution suspended, and orders given for practically anything to be done by military diktat. He has no experience in negotiating with a National Assembly that is populated by people representing various constituencies and interests. He cannot tell any court not to entertain any case brought against the government and he cannot prosecute any medium he doesn’t like or put any person in jail without due process.

The youths may not have done very well in politics because the old war lords   are still lumbering along our political corridors, taking people to shrines, carrying lorries of GMGs, Ghana must go, for settlement. But in some of the states – Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Gombe, Imo – the governors have acquitted themselves creditably and are an example of what can emerge in a political party situation where there is internal democracy and commitment to public good. The PDP is a party without a purpose (except to acquire power) but so are the wrangling rest who, you can say, have No Future Ambition, NFA, whatsoever. In this confused situation excellence is easily squashed,

Babangida’s hat may be in the ring but he knows that he has a wall to climb.